[Ducatiboyz]

Has anyone heard anything? What do you think? I really want a Dark to match my monster.
Did a search on the boards couldn't find it and a search on the internets.

 

[ducatania]

Minoli hints on his blog there could be an 848 in '08 "if there is sufficient demand for it".

I wouldn't hold my breath for a lower end Dark version though. Not much stuff left they can leave off the new bike.

 

[Ducatiboyz]

I am suprised. I thought the 749 was doing well sales wise. I know the Daytona 675 definatly took the wind out of sales of the 749. But sheesh a 749 or 848 with the single sided swingarm in dark would make me so happy. I have deposit ready...

 

[baznar]

I am suprised. I thought the 749 was doing well sales wise. I know the Daytona 675 definatly took the wind out of sales of the 749. But sheesh a 749 or 848 with the single sided swingarm in dark would make me so happy. I have deposit ready...

i agree....how can they totally disregard the mid range sport bike market, isn't that like the fastest growing? is it just too competitive that they don't even wanna go there anymore? i saw their business plan for 07 and it really didn't mention it as well..

at this rate, i would rather get the daytona 675 in red bring around a bag of marbles and just pretend i have a duc....

 

[Ducatiboyz]

at this rate, i would rather get the daytona 675 in red bring around a bag of marbles and just pretend i have a duc....

A bag of marbles too funny

 

[mwb]

I think they'd have to be real aggressive on the price/performance if they offer a 749 replacement. The new SBK is a lot cheaper than it used to be. So they couldn't price it above $10k or so. Why pay $12k for a 749 when you can step up to the 1098 for not much more. Then factor in the type of machinery you can get from Triumph and the Big Four for $9k and you see the target they'd have to hit. Why pay $12k for a 749 when you can get a 675 for $9k?

Surely, the new 1098 has the looks. So a 749 or 800 version in that bike would sell. Just a question on price. Too high and you'll lose sales to the 600's below it....as well as people moving up to the 1098.

 

[ducatania]

I am suprised. I thought the 749 was doing well sales wise. I know the Daytona 675 definatly took the wind out of sales of the 749. But sheesh a 749 or 848 with the single sided swingarm in dark would make me so happy. I have deposit ready...

Seriously, the 749 probably cost about the same to make as the 999 did. With the new bike selling for about $1000 more than the 749 did, and them cutting corners to get the price down as low as they have, how much cheaper can they build an 848 for? Would you still want an 848 if it cost the same as the 1098?

 

[derby]

1) unveil new big bike
2) sell new big bikes
3) wait...
4) wait...
5) race new big bike in race series that now allows it's bigger displacement
6) maybe win a championship
7) unveil lower displacement version of new big bike "featuring technology that won last years' <insert big bike> championship!"
8 ) ...
9) PROFIT!

readers digest version: it costs virtually the same to produce both bikes so the margins are higher with the big bike. better to keep it simple and recoup your dev/setup costs with the big bike.

 

[test-reg]

The problem with the 749 is that it hasn't been competitive for some time. Sure, for a street bike they're great (power wise anyway) - I've ridden one a few times - but that still doesn't help sales in a spec-driven market. It really doesn't make sense for Ducati to produce a bike that isn't competitive and doesn't have margins.

Personally I think that the 848 would be awesome but only if they can get it back on par with the other mid sized bikes. They were kind of ball park in terms of HP and obviously good for torque (against 600s anyway) but the bike was heavy. If they can get similar weight reductions to the 1098 and a power increase approaching the same then they may have a shot at a really competitive package. I think they will release it and they're waiting for the FIM race rules to be updated to (I'm guessing here) include twins up to 850cc.

(edit)
As for the relatively small price difference between the proposed 848 and the 1098, look at the difference between the Gix 750 and the Gix 1k, not really that much different. The bikes have a different target.

 

[baznar]

all true...and plus, how could they compete with...


http://www.gizmag.com/go/6523/

 

[mwb]

1) unveil new big bike
2) sell new big bikes
3) wait...
4) wait...
5) race new big bike in race series that now allows it's bigger displacement
6) maybe win a championship
7) unveil lower displacement version of new big bike "featuring technology that won last years' <insert big bike> championship!"
8 ) ...
9) PROFIT!

readers digest version: it costs virtually the same to produce both bikes so the margins are higher with the big bike. better to keep it simple and recoup your dev/setup costs with the big bike.

Well, you can take number 9 off that list. They won't make any profit selling it at what they'd need to.

If they cost the same to build....which they will.....then they'd have to sell them at cost in order to even sell any. The margin wouldn't be worth it. The only thing they'd gain is some brand recognition by having a bike at that price point.

They'd need to sell it for what you can get a Jap 600 for to even be close. An 800 that costs between a Jap 600 and the new 1098 would be tricky. At the least it'd need to be on par performance/price wise with the GSXR 750. Because that would steal sales from it too if the price is higher than a 600 lower than the 1098.

 

[mwb]

they have a couple of years to decide.. Minoli said an 848 MAY be around for '08 if there is enough demand.

to me, "may" means 'if we get enough people making non-refundable deposits'

I agree if he says 'may' that they probably have some numbers worked out. Must be able to turn a profit on it. But if it costs the same to build as a 1098 than they aren't going to make much. But the upside is they must have a pretty good margin on the 1098.

 

[ducatania]

I could see it. They would use different gages, more like the supersports, no dataport and a cheaper exhaust setup.

I figure they would fully merge the SS into the SBK. An 848 could have the 1098's fairing and overall look, but would have SS type gages, cheaper exhaust and the regular Marelli throttle bodies instead of the elliptical type.

that's a few thou right there.

What makes you thnk the new guages are more expensive than the analog ones they replace? Pure LCD has to be cheaper to manufacture than one with mechanical linkages in it. Just because they look cooler, doesn't mean they are more expensive. Just look at how much cheaper LCD watches are than analog ones.

The dataport is only standard on the 1098S, it can be added to the base model and how much cheaper can they make the exhaust and still have it pass Euro3 regs?

 

[ducatania]

I agree if he says 'may' that they probably have some numbers worked out. Must be able to turn a profit on it. But if it costs the same to build as a 1098 than they aren't going to make much. But the upside is they must have a pretty good margin on the 1098.

My guess is the opposite, that the margins are slim on it and they are counting on volume.

 

[ducatania]

I think you may be on to something. While at the factory this year, I was informed that Ducati actually runs seminars to train other businesses in the "run lean" and "just in time" manufacturing process, which is very American, but not very Italian.

Actually Japanese. At the dealer meeting last year, they announced that the factory was bringing in a guy they hired from Toyota to streamline the manufacturing processes and improve quality control. At $14,995 it sounds like he's doing his job. [thumbsup]

 

[mwb]

My guess is the opposite, that the margins are slim on it and they are counting on volume.

Well, how is that opposite of what I said? I didn't say highly profitable. Just that they must have done the math and figured the 'could' make money on it. Even if you are looking at volume you need to have a favorable scenario to begin with.

 

[ducatania]

Even though only the S model has the actual port, the other models probably have the same "guts" which allow the dataport. I understand your analogy to watches, but the SS gauges were not analog, they just had an analog face with digital pickups.

Yes, they can put a cheaper exhaust on. Think along the lines of the stock S2R/S4R exhausts. Weigh a little more, but only by 2-3 lbs. And a lot cheaper than CF. Euro3 specs do not specify composition only emissions.

What CF? These look like aluminum to me...

As for the SS guages, they still had to use stepper motors to drive the analog speedo and tach. Moving parts =more expensive than just an LCD screen.

 

[ducatania]

Well, how is that opposite of what I said? I didn't say highly profitable. Just that they must have done the math and figured the 'could' make money on it. Even if you are looking at volume you need to have a favorable scenario to begin with.

Well, you said "But the upside is they must have a pretty good margin on the 1098."

 

[ducatania]

Read the roadshow report. They know they cannot win on volume, Ducati only has 1000 employees -- total. They cannot produce the output to compete. Volume is absolutely not their goal.

Volume is relative. No they can't compete with the Japanese factories on volume, but believe me they are counting on selling a hell of lot more 1098s than 999s.

 

[ducatania]

Right, and those items are a dime/dozen from CEV and/or Nippondenso. They don't require an ECU to drive them.

Obviously as we haven't seen the bike we don't know for sure, but I'd guess there is still a wheel sensor for the speedo and the previous generation ana/digi guages get their tach signal from the engine's computer. Also, assuming they are using a single wire network electrical system on the bike like on the 999, it's more cost effective to have everything coming from the ECU.